Although it seems exceedingly fashionable to predict gloom and doom in regards to the economy, following the ADP report and the drop in jobless claims, a couple of pundits at least are willing to buck the trend and point out that the data isn't trending toward a recession. Larry Kudlow puts it quite well:
So here’s my point: Jobs aren’t folding. Jobs aren’t plummeting. Jobs are strengthening. Now I’m not smart enough to know what the jobs number is going to be tomorrow, but you could easily have a blockbuster 200,000 jobs report. I don’t know, it could be 150K, it could be minus 600K, but I highly doubt that folks. When you see this kind of ADP report, you’ve got a whole new situation.Meanwhile, Suitably Flip, an excellent blog, has this clear analysis:
The economy is adding jobs fast enough to be pulling people out of unemployment (perhaps much faster than we realize, if ADP is right); the job expansion is the longest in U.S. history and still going strong; the hourly pay for those jobs is increasing (perhaps accelerating), without unduly affecting inflation; and productivity is not only growing, and not only accelerating, but accelerating faster than "analysts said" it would.