Rumors of Coming Recession are Greatly Exaggerated

Although it seems exceedingly fashionable to predict gloom and doom in regards to the economy, following the ADP report and the drop in jobless claims, a couple of pundits at least are willing to buck the trend and point out that the data isn't trending toward a recession. Larry Kudlow puts it quite well:

So here’s my point: Jobs aren’t folding. Jobs aren’t plummeting. Jobs are strengthening. Now I’m not smart enough to know what the jobs number is going to be tomorrow, but you could easily have a blockbuster 200,000 jobs report. I don’t know, it could be 150K, it could be minus 600K, but I highly doubt that folks. When you see this kind of ADP report, you’ve got a whole new situation.

Meanwhile, Suitably Flip, an excellent blog, has this clear analysis:

The economy is adding jobs fast enough to be pulling people out of unemployment (perhaps much faster than we realize, if ADP is right); the job expansion is the longest in U.S. history and still going strong; the hourly pay for those jobs is increasing (perhaps accelerating), without unduly affecting inflation; and productivity is not only growing, and not only accelerating, but accelerating faster than "analysts said" it would.