Why Were Not In A Recession

 The single most interesting argument I have seen against the idea that we are in or headed for a recession is the graph below from Mark Perry's blog Carpe Diem. The shaded areas represent a recession. You will notice that the last three recessions correlated with a decline in industrial production but not consumer spending.  According to the latest Fed report, total industrial output grew by .3 percent in November and is up 2.1% from one year ago.  Given the continuing increase in industrial production, it seems rather improbable that we are in a recession.To get Mark Perry's learned commentary on this topic, go here.